Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".