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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.